Skip to main content

tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  October 13, 2015 4:00am-5:01am EDT

4:00 am
a very good morning to you. this is is worldwide exchange. i'm wilfred frost. >> i'm carolyn roth. these are your headlines from around the world. >> sab accepts a proposal offer from abi but demands they pay a $3 billion break fee if the deal falls through. >> jes staley could be ceo. >> shares in sap jump after they top profit forecast on solid
4:01 am
performance in it's mature markets. >> crude prices recover ground. russia's finance minister tells cnbc the country must learn to live with the new reality on oil and sanctions. >> we're not optimistic concerning the sanctions. we don't anticipate they'll be lifted next year though of course we would want it to happen as soon as possible. >> hi, guys, good morning. i'm susan li. coming up on the program watch and wait. the fed sounds a dovish town as risks are now tilting to the down side. also jp morgan prepares to report the first major financial earnings of the quarter. and a bit of hollywood with you with leo dicaprio turning his sights on vw buying the rights
4:02 am
to produce a film about the emissions scandal. >> right, let's talk -- there we go. beautiful picture that, isn't it? it's never too early. >> it's only 9:00 in the morning, wilf. >> but it's probably 5:00 p.m. somewhere. abi and sab miller reached an agreement on the terms of a takeover. they'll receive 44 pounds per share representing a 50% premium to the closing price f. the two largest brewing companies in the world fail to complete the deal abi will pay its smaller rival a $3 billion reverse break fee. this is the fourth bid. we've gone from 38 pounds to 44. they played hard to get and they got a huge amount extra out of it. >> they have been playing hard to get for such a long time. this also happened with them. they had a little bit of experience with dealing with
4:03 am
someone that doesn't want to be bought but at the end of the day, the question is is ab inbev paying too much? while sab miller repeatedly said the first three offers fundamentally undervalued the company because that offer was made when emerging market exposed companies were down. now you have to wonder, did they get a really good deal? >> i think the shareholders will be pleased with this. they would have been pleased when the first bid was made. the other big question is whether this still goes through. there's lots of issues, most notably competition commission issues so that 3 billion break fee could come into play if competition commissions get in. certainly going to need to be some divestitures in the u.s. and china. >> did you know if the deal goes through they together would control 30% of the global beer
4:04 am
market and that's 20% lead over the next one and that is heineken. meantime, share prices of these companies this morning, higher for both of them. sab miller is up by roughly 8.44%. ab inbev is trading to the upside by 2.5%. that's pretty good for the acquirer company. >> absolutely right. both of them moved a lot already in the last couple of weeks. let's switch focus and talk about barclays which is reportedly set to name je jes staley as it's new ceo. a number of media reports suggests he will be appointed in the next two weeks pending approval from the u.k.'s financial regulators. let's take a look at his career so far. he spent 34 years at jp morgan. he was seen as a likely successor to the ceo but in 2013 he left for hedge fund blue mountain capital run by post mortemer jp morgan executives.
4:05 am
he was a similar age to jamie dimon thinking he wouldn't get the spot. >> this is the second time barclays has approached je jes staley. the first was back in 2012 when barclays decided his contract was too expensive. in the end the british bank went for a change in direction and opted for a retail banker. we all know him. but this choice was an intentional switch from previous investment banker bob dimon. after three years at the helm mr. jenkins was ousted after disapproval of his leadership among those at the top. specifically one man, the chairman. >> earlier this year kelly evans spoke to him on u.s. closing bell where he made it clear he is in favor of big banking models. >> large banks provide the oxygen for large corporations.
4:06 am
so i would -- >> so if they're so great, why don't you go work at one? >> the other phenomenon is that the buy side is doing quite well versus the sell side. so share of the financial market has clearly shifted to the buy side community. i personally think in my lifetime probably the biggest evolution in the financial market is what you see with the large sponsors. the economic throwaway is something truly extraordinary. >> great question. in july cnbc also spoke to barclay's chairman that took up the position of interim ceo following the departure of jenkins. he is able to search for a repla replaceme replacement. >> if you're not the ceo of barclays, that's an interesting thing to do. lots to do here. this is a very tough job and it's only the best can do it. >> so there you go.
4:07 am
yeah. jes staley and he's different from jenkins because jenkins was the type that wanted to get away from investing banking that bob built at barclays and wanted to rely more on retail banking. this is a shift in culture because he was the head of jpm's investment bank and went on to work at hedge funds so i would say there's going to be an altering in how barclays business is run in the future. >> major shift. st. anthony as anthony jenkins was called. it was someone there to think more about the bank holders and get away from the area of banker bashing in the past. big move back to investment banking it seems. >> i'm not so sure about that because when he was at jp morgan for a number of years he ran the private bank and in that private bank he doubled the assets to
4:08 am
$1.3 trillion so assets under management, they rose substantially under him so he's got a good track record in that field as well as the investment bank. who tells us that we're going to go back to the investment banking sf what we do know is that investment banking at the moment is still pretty difficult. i'm looking at a recent note about q-3. a tough september closes for q-3. barclays is still their top pick within that industry but we saw a number of primary indicators being very poor investment grade issues down 7%. ipos were down 71%. all of that doesn't bode well for the investment bank. >> that's true. the private bank is an interesting proposition. what can he do like he did at jp morgan but they're both very different from the retail bank and both of those areas are different from that so i think he'll be moving away from there and the other thing was john
4:09 am
mcfarland was suggesting if europe is to have a major investment banking force it might need some form of partnership or merge with other banks. it was an off the cuff comment and certainly not a strategy point but another thing to bear in mind. >> just to keep in mind i want to make the argument that things are tough in investment banking right now but rev muys were flat in the second quarter where as they were down for the retail banking arm. if you're looking for some sort of revenue stream it's doing better than other parts for barclays at least. >> we'll see. shares are moving lower this morning. this is on a bloomberg report that the country is set to impose a 5% leverage ratio on the two biggest banks. we'll bring you more on the story when we get it. ubs down by 2.3%. 5% is pretty high but still lower than what some had called for. 10% is one level that's been floated last year. >> let's have a quick look at oil prices. we just had the iea monthly oil
4:10 am
report where they have said that oil supply held steady near 96.6 million barrels a day in september. they said that opec crude supply rose and that was really down for a rocky output offsetting a slight dip in saudi output. the previously relentless growth in non-opec supply is shrinking fast. they expect to slow from the five year high from here. in terms of inventories, inventories extended recent gains and rose by 28.8 million barrels in august. they said also that crude oil price benchmarks then rallied. reports rallied in early october as we know on expectations of lower u.s. output and rising tensions in the middle east there and if we just see the prices again today you can see we are strong but that is off the back of a big fall yesterday in oil prices. october as a whole has seen a bounce back from the weakness in
4:11 am
q-3. >> great week. up 9% for oil pricing. let's talk about russia's central bank governor. she says the plunge in crude prices is making it harder to bring down inflation from the lofty levels of 15.7% for inflation. speaking to jeff on the sidelines of the imf world bank summit in peru, the oil slump is also putting pressure on the currency the rouble. >> translator: it's lead to the situation following inflation, deflation. in our case the situation is the opposite. the foreign oil prices may lead to certain pressure on the rouble rate and may have inflation risks. >> jeff spoke to the country's finance minister that says that russia must come to terms with a new reality and diversify away from energy. >> translator: our current goal is to make the economy less dependent on the price of oil. our fiscal projections for next
4:12 am
year are based on the assumption of $50 u.s. per barrel. next year we estimate this revenue at 43% of all budget revenue it was around 52% awhile ago. we will have to develop other industries in order to promote import substitution to replace the goods that have become either expensive or restricted in reaching russia. under these conditions export industries, so-called trade based sectors of the economy started growing and there were some significant results in this field. i could name a few. i could mention the agriculture sector and industrial sectors exporting goods and we think that the 3rd and 4th quarter of this year to be the turning point for the russian economy. >> we have a lot of fed talk to keep on top of and a fed
4:13 am
official says now is not the time to be raising rates. bra brainard says the central bank should be watching and waiting. she says that moves in the financial markets have already delivered tightening which has been equal to two rate hikes. brainard says the fed should hold off until it's clear that global risk won't push the u.s. recovery off course and it could be dangerous if the fed hikes only to find it needs to cut rates once again. make sure to tune in later on today because we have steve's rare and exclusive interview with the fed governor dan tarullo at 20:00 cet. >> the future of europe is one of the topics up for discussion at the summit in london and louisa is at that conference and joins us now. >> yeah, good morning,
4:14 am
everybody. yes, we will be talking a lot more about this. the number of panels going on right now. so tom hunter joins me. he is chairman of the hunter foundation. good morning. so my colleagues were just talking about oil prices. they were talking about the global economy in general and of course we also have the issue of whether or not britain remains part of the eu. now she thinks it's inevitable that a second scottish referendum is going to happen. what are your thoughts on this? >> a little under a year ago the scottish people had a referendum and decided to stay within the union. both the former first minister and the current first minister said at the time it was a once in a generation decision. and i'd like to see them keep their word on that. it's disrespectful for the scottish people to come up with
4:15 am
another referendum. they're not like buses. we shouldn't just wait and jump on one when we think the mood is there. i think what should happen is scotland like every other economy in the world has got some major challenges and i want the scottish government to focus on building a strong economy, building a world class education system and taking care of our national health service and therefore if they are worrying about another referendum they are not 100% focused on these big issues. of course 7 to 10 years, it's the will of the scottish people that we require in our referendum then fine but not within the next 12 or 24 months. >> but a lot of it must depend of what comes out of the u.k. parliament now. what cameron decides to do and whether or not we push ahead with an in out referendum which
4:16 am
he promised we will and what the u.k. votes. >> yeah. what was said is if there's a big change and a big change would be, in her opinion, if britain voted to exit the european union, then she would say well the scottish people don't want that and that would give her another referendum. so it's a very interesting time in scottish and u.k. and european politics, that's for sure. >> we're talking about whether or not europe needs swagger. whether or not europe needs to do something and listening to gloomy out looks from various economies here in london. we were talking about this just a couple of minutes ago and you were saying a lot of it has to do with education as well and how the education system is structured and that will lead us toward the next 20 or 30 years and what happens with the prosperity.
4:17 am
not just the u.k. or scotland but europe as well. >> if you look toward america which does still give us a lot of the pointers of where the global economy is going, i spent a bit of time in silicon valley and i see young people being amazingly educated to come into start ups, to come into scale ups and i don't see that to much in britain and if one of the purposes of education is to prepare our young people for the world of work then i don't know what the world of work looks like in five years time. therefore i think we'll need to radically change how we prepare young people so that they can work in start ups and scale ups and maybe be the founders of these businesses because that's where the reinvention comes from. we hear a lot of doom and gloom. i'm always an optimist but there
4:18 am
has to be that optimism and are young people educated properly is one of the main things. >> thank you very much. chairman of the hunter foundation. we'll be back with the president of the u.s. spain council foundation coming up next. >> looking forward to it. thank you so much. still to come here on worldwide exchange, chinese trade taking a tumble but beijing markets pick themselves right back up. stay tuned as we bring you a drill down on the data. that comes your way next. hello, ken jennings. i haven't seen you since that tv quiz show. hello, watson. you can see now? i can recognize people, analyze images and watch movies. well i wrote a few books, did a speaking tour, i... i've been helping people plan for retirement. and i help doctors identify cancer treatments. is that all? i recently learned japanese...
4:19 am
yeah, i was being sarcastic. i haven't learned sarcasm yet. i can help with that. it's more than a nit's reliable uptime. and multi-layered security. it's how you stay connected to each other and to your customers. with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions, including an industry leading broadband network, and cloud and hosting services - all with dedicated, responsive support. with centurylink as your trusted technology partner, you're free to focus on growing your business. centurylink. your link to what's next. you wouldn't take medicine without checking the side effects. hey honey.
4:20 am
huh. the good news is my hypertension is gone. so why would you invest without checking brokercheck? check your broker with brokercheck.
4:21 am
imports dropped more than 20% in september. at least when it comes to dollar denominated terms. let's get out to beijing. eunice, i guess people are wondering how this sets us up for third quarter gdp numbers on monday. >> yeah. that's exactly what people are wondering about. most people are disappointed because they lost 20% of their value year on year in denominated terms and part of that is because of falling commodity prices but it's also because of the weak domestic demand and exports didn't help. there was a bit of a recovery
4:22 am
but the numbers were down by 3.7%. so all of this is feeding into the idea here that the government will come in with new measures to help prop up the economy either in the form of interest rate cuts or lowering the rrr or reserve requirement ratio or possibly seeing more green lighting of infrastructure projects and the buzz in the market is that these measures could come before a major economic development meet chg is called the five year plan. that's going to be discussed later this month. one official said today that the exports were also boosted by the currency devaluations and that he believed that trade would continue to strengthen in q-4 but right now most investors as you rightly pointed out are focused on q-3 and what these numbers mean for q-3 and whether or not q-3 is going to miss it's targets.
4:23 am
>> eunice, thank you so much. >> let's have a look at european markets and how they're doing. yesterday we are mixed in europe today. very much negative. that strengthened that weakness as we have gone through today's trade. largely because of soft starts in asia but also if we look at the smi down 1% and that's lead lower by a couple of the banks there. credit suisse is off 3% and that new capital ratio 5% announced today weighing on the swiss banks. >> the eu has warned that even though the spanish economy is growing at one of the fastest rates in the euro zone the budget is too optimistic and could violate fiscal rules. let's get to louisa. >> the panels are are well underway next door.
4:24 am
i managed to grab the president of the u. s. spain council foundation and former deputy and ceo as well. good to have you with us this morning. >> nice to be here. >> we're on the panel in around two hours time give or take a bit where we'll be talking about the eu and whether or not we continue to see union or whether we see disillusion. what do you think of the future of the eu? where are we heading? >> what i do think is that the game is over. if the game is over, do we still have a match in front of us or not? and why do i think the game is over? two factors. one is expersonternal and one i between the two. the external one is multilate l
4:25 am
multilateral. europe has been jumping on and greece is driving us to nowhere. >> you think we're heading toward a split? >> no, i think this is for no good. we do not have clear ideas and in practice the fiasco in european external policy jumped into the arabic spring, ukraine, trade agreements, et cetera, et cetera is for no good. >> why would we be able to solve anything at this stage compared to a couple of years ago? now some say we're heading toward another recession. i mean he is arguing that we could be heading toward another downturn. >> yes, of course. i very much think that we are at the end of the cycle. i do think that they have taken adequate positions in terms of jumps to delicate situations. one was in 2008 and the other one in 2012 but the positions
4:26 am
that have been taken very much in line with past practices and mainly financial decisions have driven us to a situation where we need to solve the problems we have imbedded which means that for protected population in europe and perhaps in other places go back to classics and this means enhance savings and capital. to do that and have more solid basis for growth something strong must be done. we're in intermediate situation which could get us into to a black swan. >> we need to sit down and continue this chat at another point. president of the u.s.-spain
4:27 am
council foundation and former deputy chairman and ceo as well. more to come here. back to you. >> thank you so much for that. still to come here on worldwide exchange, a big fat zeroful that's the forecast for u.k. inflation due any minute now. we'll assess mark carney's monetary quandry after the break. >> let's take a look at the u.s. futures board since we had the second lowest volume day of the year. we're looking at an implied open lower and the dow jones and nasdaq as well.
4:28 am
4:29 am
4:30 am
sab miller accepts a proposal offer from abi but demands they pay $3 billion break fee if the deal falls through. >> barclays set to appoint jes staley as ceo in what could see the return of an investment banking expert. >> shares jump in frankfurt after the biggest software maker tops profit forecast in it's mature markets. >> crude prices recover ground after russia's huge drop. the country must learn to live with the new reality on oil and
4:31 am
sanctions. >> we are not optimistic concerning the sanctions and don't anticipate they'll be lifted next year though we would want it to happen as soon as possible. >> let's have a look at u.k. inflation data which slipped into negative data in september. some have it at 0.0%. that was the forecast for 0.0 and it has come in at minus 0.1%. the cpi number. so just slipped into negative territory. we're expecting it to be bang on zero and it's lead to a slide off sterling as you can see. down minus .6% today. 15255. let's have a little hook at producer price which has come in at minus 0.1% on the month and
4:32 am
minus 1.8% in the year. so they have fallen. that's more in line with forecasts than the cpi, which as i said, just dropped into negative territory for the first annual fall since april. >> do you know what one of the main reasons is? i don't know if your utility provider is british gas but they cut prices by 5% at the end of august. it's not my provider. >> it is mine. there you go. i can afford one extra of the giant pints we saw earlier. >> very good. ubs and credit suisse are down quite a bit in this morning's trading session. it's a negative one for the smis anyway. ubs down by 2.26%. this comes after a report saying that the swiss finance minister will require the country's biggest banks to have capital equal to 5% of their total assets what they're talking about is the leverage ratio. for months and months the
4:33 am
finance ministry and regulators talked about unveiling the details by the end of the year. we also know that ubs and credit suisse have been lobbying against too big of a hike in that leverage ratio but what we do know is ubs's leverage ratio was at 2.6% and both will have to bulk up for ubs. that might mean a lower than expected hike. much of that money will have to be set aside to satisfy the capital requirements. >> russia economy is struggling under the weight of international sanctions and lower oil prices but the country's finance minister is not optimistic that trade restrictions will be lifted in 2016. jeff is live in moscow for us at the russia calling conference. let's get out to jeff now.
4:34 am
>> yeah so the message is through import substitution and trying to make enterprises more efficient the russian economy should turn the corner at the end of this year and begin to show some growth in 2016 but one of the key reasons why growth will be weak this year has been the sanctions regime. the sanctions are set to finish in january so it remains to be seen whether they'll be extended but i put that question as to whether they're likely to be removed to the finance minister. let's listen. >> we're not optimistic concerning the sanctions. we don't anticipate they'll be lifted next year though of course we would want it to happen as soon as possible. >> one of the great aest
4:35 am
challenges is the closed access to international capital markets but those sanction versus been posed and i spoke earlier with the ceo of vtb capital and i asked him for his thoughts then on whether funding can improve and how he sees sanctions for them. >> whenever it happens it will be a major positive shock. major positive outcome for the market. you'll see a significant improvement across all fronts and obviously vtb capital will be a big beneficiary of this. but our model is such that we're making progress with our clients and making money as we go through a tough environment. >> but of course for this business they had to do what the russian economy has done at large which effectively means find other ways of generating profit around the business
4:36 am
focused on u.s. and european capital markets. that's what they embarked on over the last 18 months or so. this business lost $92 million last year but the ceo of the capital business says he thinks they'll make a profit this year. let's just listen to what he had to say. >> the way our business operates is it allows us to remain relevant for our clients throughout the business cycle regardless of where you are exactly in the business cycle. certain products which we emphasize, there's certain products such as volatility driven products such as the facts, such as general demand for financing and this allows us to make money. you have to realize that with with the markets being shutdown for a significant period of time, with our clients having little access to external capital the demand for internal financing went up. a market share generally went up because the klines need more
4:37 am
from us because they're more constrained on the international side. if you look at our business given that many of our western competitors decided to down size their operation our market share went up significantly. our share of that piece, we're very committed to this. >> so a profit this year, can we expect a profit this year out of the business? >> hopefully? >> so those comments from the ceo of vtb capital and i'll just make it clear for the reasons of transparency we are at an event being hosted by the vtb group and president putin is due to speak here within the next hour. back to you. >> just wanted to follow up with a quick question on oil of course. so relevant to the russian economy. what do people make of the recent rally we've seen in october? i suppose yesterday's fall in the oil price a reminder not to get too overexcited with the
4:38 am
bounce that we've seen. >> the russian government worked out it's budget at $50 barrel so anything below that leaves a black hole in the budgeting. they're in a reasonable financial division they're not challenging here and they have well funds they can dip into but clearly it's not a good story for them. higher oil prices generate significant revenue for the russian government and a little under half of their budget is dependent on energy prices so wilfred you're absolutely spot on to pick this one out. they were encouraged by the fact that we were heading back to $50 barrel. we've seen a lot of volatility in markets recently.
4:39 am
here they're hoping that volatility will start to wash out toward the year end. back to you. >> thank you very much for that. >> let's stay with russia and the chairman of aeroflot ruled on another bid for rifle transaero. shares are trading down about 1.6%. now in a first on cnbc interview he explains why he turned against this deal. >> at any stage we'll come back to the decision to buy transaero and this will be really dangerous and tough decision so my vote would be not to buy it. >> let's turn our attention to market news from the asia pacific and in minutes released today the bank of japan says the country slow down is a result of the downturn in emerging markets. let's get the latest from tokyo.
4:40 am
>> the bank of japan is concerned that the 2% inflation target may take longer to reach than expected. the banker said consumer prices will likely reach it's 2% inflation target sometime in the first half of fiscal 2016. but some board members said consumer prices may see a dip compared to last year pushing back the timing of reaching it's goal. the dip could be due to falling crude oil prices and the basic trend of prices continuing to rise has not changed. the board was also concerned over the chinese economy and agreed it was slowing down some what mainly in the manufacturing sector. weaker demand from overseas lead to fall in japanese exports and several members said companies may cut back on capital spending. higher consumer prices is crucial for the abe administration to achieve it's economic growth strategy and
4:41 am
board members also agreed that measures are needed to encourage firms to increase spending and wages. that's all from the nikkei. back to you. >> thank you so much. >> still to come on the show, injecting fiz in the m&a market. it could trigger a wave of merger activity across the board. we discuss after the short break. still around.
4:42 am
4:43 am
4:44 am
>> europe's biggest software maker reports on the bottom line. the company credited strong double digit growth and cloud revenue and solid performance in mature markets. s&p's chief financial officer did warn he expected volatility in emerging markets. share price action up 5% in today's trade. meanwhile, shares in auto cabling company are down over 25% after the german manufacturer warned on 2015 profits and also cut the outlook for next year. it also announced the company is preparing a package of measured intended to increase the profitability of wiring systems division. it's down 29.3%. >> wow.
4:45 am
a mayor shareholder says further decisions are expected at the company. they are committed to the stake in the business but says that the emissions scandal has impacted the local governments tax revenues. this comes as various media reports suggest the former ceo is to step down from his remaining posts related to vw. he is still chief executive of audi. >> what do you think of a film about volkswagen and the emissions scandal? might not be too early because leo dicaprio's film might be the wolf of wolfsberg. variety has come on board to produce a movie about the scandal. the hollywood reporter saying that it will focus on how a more
4:46 am
better faster philosophy lead to one of the greatest corporate scams in history. you guys are shaking your heads already. >> this is the most stupid story i've ever heard. it's absurd. >> i agree. >> tell me how you really feel. >> it's absurd. apart from the fact that the scandal hasn't played out yet. it could peter out and then you don't have a story worth making a film about. it's based on the book not written yet. >> i can think of 20 better bigger corporate scandals that would make for better watching or reading. tampering with an emissions software, that too me doesn't sound very james bond. >> what will be exciting is the white lab coats looking at the computer screens. oh, it's higher. what should we do. >> guys. >> this is the most stupid thing i've ever heard. >> what has dominated business news headlines for the last two weeks. so it's been exciting. >> not entertainment news. i'm not going to sit down and
4:47 am
watch a 90 minute blockbuster about this. this is ridiculous. >> i think it would be interesting. too big to fail do you think that was interesting? >> i thought one of the maybe ten movies that came out was watchable. you can't make entertainment out of business stories. they're fascinating for us. >> i completely disagree. the blind side was a great movie. >> that was not a business story at all. >> it was written by michael lewis. >> documentary. >> that was a compelling story based on statistics that evolved into a great human interest story. >> with a vw, that's just cringe worthy but think of all the german activiti german accents they're trying to imitate. >> the only thing i like is the title. >> that's not the title.
4:48 am
we made that up. >> i know that. dramatizations about this type of stuff is tricky. particularly when the story isn't over yet. that's why i think this is absurd. >> i'm glad this instigated so much debate. that's interest. if you want to talk about it, you're interested in talking about it. >> okay i'll go watch it because leo is in it. >> no he's not in it. he's producing it. >> if he's in it i'll go watch it. >> is he going to play winterkorn. >> some guy from the eba. >> he could pull it off. >> they'll have to fabricate some kind of exciting love story as well to have it as well. something like that. i'm going to stop before a dig a hole any deeper. >> you are -- i think you're a screen writer in the making right there. >> not with this story. >> let's move on and talk about fortune magazine hosting the annual most powerful women's summit in washington this week. the meeting gathers women in
4:49 am
business and government, philanthropy, business and the arts. we will have an exclusive interview with mary barra today at 18:45 cet time. >> abi and sab -- there it is. it's my favorite wall -- have reached an agreement in principle on the terms of a takeover. sab miller shareholders will receive 44 pounds per share representing a premium to the closing price. if they fail to complete the deal abi will pay its smaller rival a $3 billion reverse break free. >> both stocks have seen nice ones today. ab inbev shares were also up and we're just waiting for the share prices of these. we don't have them but what i can tell you is both companies were trading higher. joining us is scott miller. director of m&a research.
4:50 am
good morning to you. >> good morning. >> did you think this deal was actually going to go through after it's been rejected a couple of times? >> clearly he's got the shareholders on board with him. 41% right there. so i think he'll get over the 50% point. whether the deal ends up getting to closing is the real question right now because competition issues are just going to -- whether they can get past the competition commissions they'll need to look at it and that raises uncertainty. it's not surprising that the share price is not yet up to 43 or 44 pounds but 10% below that there's uncertainty out there. >> lots of competition issues so likely to involve some quite significant digestments in the u.s. beer market and chinese beer market as well. does ma make it much harder to
4:51 am
justify this price? >> i suspect they have assets that haven't been performing the way they want them to. you get the competition issues and that's going to be a challenge for them but they will try to make sure that they can get as much as they can. that's going to be a concern. >> it's a big day. but this might have been a little bit more than what ab inbev might have wanted to pay. >> i suspect values leaves a little bit more room. remember this is the formal offer that doesn't have to be.
4:52 am
>> i think there could still be another pound or two in this depending on when they really -- do they have to give that money at this point in time? i'm not sure they do. >> so even if the price goes up more you don't think ab inbev would be overpaying because share prices have fallen so much over the last year? it's a 50% premium over september 14th but you wouldn't think it's too much. >> no, at the moment i think it's around a 20% increase over where it was a year ago. that's at the lower range of where most deals are. most deals end up going a bit higher than that. i suspect the investment bankers working on this deal would have been looking at a range that would have had a bit more and one can always work those numbers out. >> does this highlight the
4:53 am
appetite for m&a at the moment? >> this is clearly going to be one of the largest deals ever. that adds confidence into the board rooms of other companies who are looking perhaps should we be doing a deal? if this deal is suggested by shareholders, this is unique because of major shareholders. and again the bankers and the companies have been able to get this deal to the point where the companies want to see it go through. i think one of the things is that they've been seeing a slight deal and maybe now we'll be seeing more activity between now and year end. >> you've just done a survey, a study at business school in terms of m&a attractiveness, singapore came out on top of that.
4:54 am
>> we look at a number of different factors. there's not that many countries. >> yeah. >> there's only one singapore country. we can make a movie about that one too. >> do you think leo would play? >> i don't know but come to think of it maybe the beer deal would make it more interesting for people to go see. >> i agree. and a much better after party. >> yes. yes. about 8 puns just suddenly came to mind but i'll pass on those. but there aren't a lot of companies there but in terms of the environment, stability population. growth of the economy, it's access to markets, it looks like an attractive place to be. >> sorry. i was looking at your notes and i saw that you think this ab sab deal would have more announcements going to year's end. it looked drier for awhile. >> that's my point. when you have a big complex deal
4:55 am
like this taking place where there has been resistance yet the companies and teams have been able to get this one close to the finish line and looks like they have an agreed deal whether or not it gets approved is a different issue but on this particular one it shows the boards were willing to talk to each other and they were able to get something. >> four attempts to -- >> four attempts or five to get it there but it got done, okay? and it's massive? so what i'm just suggesting here is that it does indicate that there is some -- there is still some room in the marketplace for other deals to take place although i don't think necessarily in this particular industry, although any time you do have a deal like this, that does spur some other deals, but i think that it does show that deals can get done even in the environment where we have a lot of uncertainty because of politics and the economy and other things taking place. >> or this is the top of the market and we're done here.
4:56 am
that shows you maybe even though you say they're not necessarily overpaying this is a huge deal and it cannot be replicated. they'll have to take out debt to finance that too. who knows whether it's going to be easy for them to issue that debt. >> i suspect that the markets will be able to absorb the debt requirements of this deal and look at what's been done with some of the shareholders looking for more shares because of the tax issues on this one but i'm not -- actually i am. i think this will spur greater activity and show that deals can get done. >> thank you for your time. scott miller. director of m&a research. stick around. we want to hear more of your movie ideas. why not? >> we have the official start to the earnings season in the u.s. when jp morgan reports third quarter results. intel also coming up with report
4:57 am
cards as well and more earnings on wednesday. and after the bell netflix comes out. and also expected to release are united health and phillip morris and ge, general electric and honeywell on friday. which earnings do you think will act as the best bell weather for the u.s. economy? you can find us on twitter as well. our personal handles are are on the screen and we'll take a bit of a breather. we'll see you after this. it's more than the cloud. it's security - and flexibility. it's where great ideas and vital data are stored. with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions from a trusted it partner. including cloud and hosting services - all backed by an industry leading broadband network
4:58 am
and people committed to helping you grow your business. you get a company that's more than just the sum of it's parts. centurylink. your link to what's next.
4:59 am
5:00 am
good tuesday morning everybody. treat them mean, keep them keen. sab miller accepts a 68 billion pound proposal from ab inbev but demands they pay a $3 billion break fee if the deal falls through. >> back to the future, barclays set to appoint a former jp morgan banker as ceo in what could see the run of an investment bank expert. >> watch and wait. the fed s

20 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on